Wall Street estimates for Tesla’s second-quarter vehicle deliveries are beginning to take shape. Recent reports published by RBC Capital, UBS, and Baird indicate that expectations for the company’s delivery performance are concentrated in the range of 393,000 to 405,000 vehicles.
RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan expects Tesla to announce its second-quarter deliveries within the next two weeks and forecasts that the company will deliver 405,000 vehicles during this period. This figure is above the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 401,000 vehicles. Narayan maintains an “Outperform” rating and a $475 price target for TSLA shares.
The RBC analysis notes that the company’s decision to end production of the Model S and Model X in the second quarter has strengthened the company’s strategic focus on its robotaxi and humanoid robot projects. However, according to the analyst, this shift could put pressure on individual vehicle sales in the future.
UBS also raised its second-quarter delivery forecast for Tesla to 405,000 vehicles. It noted that this forecast represents a 5% increase year-over-year and a 13% increase quarter-over-quarter. UBS stated that market expectations generally range between 400,000 and 420,000 vehicles, and that if the company closes the quarter strongly, deliveries could approach the upper end of the forecast range. UBS maintains a “Neutral” rating and a $364 price target for TSLA shares.
Baird expressed a cautious stance regarding Tesla’s vehicle delivery figures
Baird, however, offered a more cautious forecast, predicting that Tesla will deliver 392,900 vehicles in the second quarter. The firm expects Tesla to announce its delivery figures on July 2. While maintaining an “Outperform” rating and a $522 price target for TSLA shares, Baird noted that the company could find support from catalysts such as Optimus robot updates, the adaptation of fully autonomous driving in Europe, the expansion of robotaxis in the U.S., and Tesla Semi deliveries in the coming period.
Baird also suggested that a merger between SpaceX and Tesla is possible within the next 12 to 18 months. According to the firm, such a merger could be Elon Musk’s “ultimate game plan” for his companies, and both firms could benefit from greater scale.
Meanwhile, Tesla saw a strong rebound in its European sales in May. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, the company’s new vehicle registrations in Europe more than doubled year-over-year, rising to 28,610. Within the European Union, Tesla registrations totaled 21,767. May marked the fourth consecutive month of growth for Tesla’s European sales.
TSLA shares, however, came under selling pressure during the day. The stock price fell 6 percent in afternoon trading to $379.59.
