US power generation is forecast to increase 2.2% to a record 4,368 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 as data centers and manufacturing facilities lift electricity demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects generation to rise another 1.7% in 2027.
The agency’s September Short-Term Energy Outlook projects retail electricity sales of 4,135 billion kilowatt-hours this year, almost 2% above 2025, followed by a further increase to 4,211 billion kilowatt-hours next year. Commercial and industrial consumption is expected to provide much of that growth.
US Power Generation Mix Shifts Toward Solar and Wind
Natural gas is projected to supply 40% of electricity in both 2026 and 2027. Coal’s share is expected to decline from 16% to 14%, while wind rises from 11% to 12% and solar increases from 8% to 9%. Nuclear power is forecast to remain at 18%.
The energy outlook also reflects disruption in global oil markets. EIA expects constraints around the Strait of Hormuz to persist through the fourth quarter, leaving an average 5.7 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern crude production shut in. Brent crude is forecast near $90 a barrel in the second half of 2026 before averaging $74 in 2027.
Rising US power generation underscores the scale of new grid investment required to serve computing and industrial loads. The forecast remains sensitive to project delays, weather, fuel prices and the pace at which planned data centers connect to regional networks.
