There is growing speculation in Washington that Trump could be pushed into a “lame duck” position as his second presidential term progresses. With the midterm elections in November drawing closer, there are comments that Trump’s political influence may wane over time due to the challenges he faces in both domestic and foreign policy.
Having begun his second term roughly 17 months ago, Trump has faced many challenges during this period. Courts have blocked some of the administration’s policies, while diplomatic efforts to end the war with Iran are said to have made no progress. While public opinion polls point to a decline in his approval rates, some Republican representatives in Congress are reportedly beginning to oppose Trump’s stance. Nevertheless, Trump is said to have largely maintained his influence over the party’s base.
In spite of this, Trump remains powerful within the Republican Party. With the president’s backing, some incumbent Republican politicians have lost their seats in primaries, while he continues to push forward with radical trade policies and implement large-scale infrastructure projects in Washington.
Political observers note that a potential decline in Trump’s influence has come to the fore ahead of the midterm elections in November. If the Democrats regain a majority in the House of Representatives or the Senate, it is believed that it will become even more difficult for Trump to advance his legislative agenda. In US history, it is known that presidents who cannot run for re-election see their political influence wane over time and face greater obstacles in achieving their domestic policy goals.
An unnamed White House adviser stated that the administration is working to prevent Trump from being viewed as a “lame duck” early on and that Republican members of Congress have been told the president still holds decisive power over their political futures. However, the same source acknowledged that Trump’s influence will naturally wane following the midterm elections.
On the other hand, Trump’s occasional remarks about a third term were suggested to be a move against this view. According to a former senior advisor, Trump tried to counter the image of a “lame duck losing influence” by bringing up the topic of a third term in private meetings.
White House Spokesperson Olivia Wales, meanwhile, said that Trump is the undisputed leader of the Republican Party and noted that the president continues to work to maintain the Republican majority in Congress.
Donald Trump’s health is a topic of public interest
While debates over Trump’s political standing persist, his health and age remain under close public scrutiny. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in February, 61 percent of Americans believe Trump has become more unpredictable as he ages, while in another survey conducted in April, a majority of participants expressed concerns about the president’s emotional stability and mental performance.
As the oldest president to take office in U.S. history, Trump is scheduled to celebrate his 80th birthday this week with a UFC event in the White House garden. While the president maintained a busy travel schedule earlier this year, he has reportedly spent more time at the White House and his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida since the start of the war with Iran.
Last month, Trump underwent a routine medical checkup and stated that his health was excellent. However, his recent appearance with swollen ankles and bruises on his hands has drawn attention. White House officials say Trump is particularly reluctant to be compared to his predecessor, Joe Biden, who left office at the age of 82.
Analysts believe that despite a potential decline in his political influence, Trump could still take significant steps through executive orders and maintain his unilateral room for maneuver in foreign policy.However, the fact that some members of the Republican Party have begun to oppose the administration’s policies and the disagreements in Congress are reinforcing assessments that the president’s control over the government is weakening over time.
Some Republican lawmakers and Democrats have criticized Trump in recent weeks over the Iran conflict, while reports suggest that some of the administration’s spending and funding plans have been blocked in Congress. In response, Trump has recently shifted his focus more toward infrastructure projects, frequently bringing up initiatives such as a new ceremonial hall, the renovation of the reflecting pool on the National Mall, and the proposed Victory Arch.
Analysts believe Trump will continue to exert a decisive influence, particularly on the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, for the remainder of his term. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are cited as leading contenders among potential candidates within the party.
Douglas Brinkley, however, says that unpredictability is the defining characteristic of Trump’s leadership style, adding that the president is not expected to change this approach regardless of which party controls Congress. Brinkley says the international community must be prepared for unexpected developments during the Trump era.
